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PostPosted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:55 am 
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Location: Alto Vista, Aruba
So far, just the hospital numbers:

There are now 25 patients in the "covid ward" (5 new, 7 discharged, so a reduction of 2), and 10 patients in the ICU (1 new, 3 out of isolation or discharged), so a total of 35.

The other numbers will be released later, and I'll update then.

In other news bits:
- The police have stepped up their enforcement actions against bars and restaurants that aren't following social distancing, staying open too late, etc. The only ones I know of are Yen Yen (in Noord) and La Oficina (in Tanki Leendert), though there may be others.
- The Prime Minister announced the other day that the curfew (midnight-5am) will be extended another 2 weeks (at least)


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:14 pm 
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I think the important numbers are that of people in the Covid Ward and ICU. If we go back over a month yes the numbers of people testing positive (result of more testing) has gone up and the numbers in the Covid Ward and ICU have gone up but at a very low rate.

If my often alcohol soaked brain serves me correct about 80% of people testing positive never show signs and another percentage get little to minor symptoms. In Aruba as in the rest of the world it is the elderly in poor health or young with any pre-existing conditions that are at most risk.

If there is any reason for you over weight, non-exercising, crap eating people to stop and reset it's now it's Covid.

As for places opening and staying open can anyone blame them. It's their lives and livelihood. What I can blame them for is their lack of following the guidelines.

Here in New York it is projected that 50% of restaurants will be closed for good by the end of the year. Where you folks live fair to say that 30%+ places are closed never to reopen.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 6:39 pm 
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The rest of the information for today:

Sadly, two more patients have passed away from Covid-19, bringing the total number of fatalities to 20 (all locals).

There were only 14 positive cases diagnosed yesterday (remember, weekends are typically very "slow" for testing) and 24 people added to the "recovered" list, so the total number of active cases is now 1,474.

There were 266 tests performed since yesterday, 52 residents and 214 non-residents at the airport.


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:38 am 
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The daily number of tests is disturbingly low and does seem intended to keep the numbers as light as possible.

But, I can't think of any country that adopted that strategy that has had a good run in flattening the curve.

Without proper measurement, this virus will just keep spreading quietly in the community and then rear its ugly head as a surge each time it reaches a vulnerable population.

The ugliest of those will be when (not if) it reaches a tourist population at a hotel, time share resort, restaurant, or tour company.

One housekeeper, entering how many rooms in a day (?) could be all it takes.

If testing is not to be beefed up to protect residents AND visitors, then Aruba is in for the long haul now.

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:52 am 
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I don't disagree, but bear in mind that weekends (which show up as Sunday and Monday results) are always really low testing days. Even _normal_ weekdays are too low for my tastes, but Sunday and Monday results are not representative of the week, I think.


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:04 am 
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First of all, no one knows how many visitors have returned home and found out they were positive. Also, no real way of knowing if they caught it in Aruba, on the plane or once they returned. What will be interesting going forward is now that school is back in session, there will be more seniors who visit than in the Summer. That being the case, seniors tend to stay for more than a week. Whereas families have a greater tendency to stay for one week. Since symptoms usually don’t appear for several days, the one week visitors are home before they know what hit them. Thus, it will be interesting to see how the numbers will be for visitors (Seniors) who stay for more than a week.

Those in the Aruba medical profession have stated the hospital is feeling the strain with just 40 Covid patients.

If the government is not mandating those who live in the same residence, as one who tested positive, to also stay home, the virus will continue to spread by just playing “tag, you’re it”.

Going forward, once a vaccine becomes available, I wouldn’t be surprised to see, at a minimum, a visitor required to show documentation they received it. Survey numbers have shown anti-vaxers for any type of vaccination are over 20%. Those who cannot show proof, would be required to have a negative test prior to flying and another test upon arrival.


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:16 am 
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casadelmar wrote:
If the government is not mandating those who live in the same residence, as one who tested positive, to also stay home, the virus will continue to spread by just playing “tag, you’re it”.


I think the government recommendation is that family members of those who test positive are supposed to quarantine separately in the house, and - if they display any symptoms themselves - then they're supposed to be isolated as well. Of course, how well this works out in a small family house remains to be seen.

I can say that the government is (finally?) stepping up their enforcement and follow-up on the quarantine - just yesterday they reported that they found 86 (or 68, sorry, I don't recall at the moment) people who were supposed to be quarantining not at home.

If everyone really followed the rules - and that means the masks, the social distancing, the washing, etc. - then we'd go a lot further towards getting this under control. But I still see so many people (away from the visibility of the tourist-frequented locales) who aren't taking this seriously. It's beyond frustrating...


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:08 am 
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bryanzs wrote:
casadelmar wrote:
If the government is not mandating those who live in the same residence, as one who tested positive, to also stay home, the virus will continue to spread by just playing “tag, you’re it”.


I think the government recommendation is that family members of those who test positive are supposed to quarantine separately in the house, and - if they display any symptoms themselves - then they're supposed to be isolated as well. Of course, how well this works out in a small family house remains to be seen.

I can say that the government is (finally?) stepping up their enforcement and follow-up on the quarantine - just yesterday they reported that they found 86 (or 68, sorry, I don't recall at the moment) people who were supposed to be quarantining not at home.

If everyone really followed the rules - and that means the masks, the social distancing, the washing, etc. - then we'd go a lot further towards getting this under control. But I still see so many people (away from the visibility of the tourist-frequented locales) who aren't taking this seriously. It's beyond frustrating...


And the vast majority who work in the tourist area do not live in the tourist area. Even with all the precautions, employees who are asymptomatic are going to work and the potential is there for tourists to be infected. If my presumption of the demographic change is correct now that schools are back in session and an older clientele is on the island, I would not be surprised to see some tourists getting the virus while there.

I hope I’m wrong.


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:55 am 
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To quote casadelmar :

And the vast majority who work in the tourist area do not live in the tourist area. Even with all the precautions, employees who are asymptomatic are going to work and the potential is there for tourists to be infected. If my presumption of the demographic change is correct now that schools are back in session and an older clientele is on the island, I would not be surprised to see some tourists getting the virus while there.

BINGO. It is a little older demographic that is coming in the Winter, not necessarily elderly but empty nesters, and there isn't much choice other than for visitors to interact with locals when all services are provided by locals.

On the subject of whether testing is adequate, when you are in 4th place in the world for cases per capita (and closing in on 3rd position which actually requires a big move up the chart), you shouldn't be in 25th place on tests per capita.

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 15, 2020 5:35 pm 
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For crying out loud, is it really necessary to repeat the same thing day after day after day and give YOUR critique of what the government is doing wrong? We are all aware of what the situation is and its not going to change for sometime. We get it, they are #4, ect..., we only need to hear it once. Things will not change in the next 3 months no matter how much one complains. If your not comfortable with the current conditions, you won't be going in the next 6 months so get over it. They needed to open to try and survive. Also IMO there is no way they will require proof of a vaccine. That will eliminate 40% of their tourist pool. I know I will sell or walk away from all my weeks if that is the case because I will not be getting any vaccine.


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 15, 2020 6:00 pm 
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[quote="Arubadan"Also IMO there is no way they will require proof of a vaccine. That will eliminate 40% of their tourist pool. I know I will sell or walk away from all my weeks if that is the case because I will not be getting any vaccine.[/quote]

Never say never. I believe I implied it wouldn’t surprise me if they require a vaccine from visitors. The government is really getting closer to being between a rock and a hard place. As we all know there are multiple areas, internally and externally, that need to be addressed for the island to prosper again. Dutch Dushi gives me the impression The Netherlands has a large say on the financial situation. That being the case, who knows how large of hammer they will bring down.

As for one choosing to get vaccine or not, that’s a personal choice and not for me to make judgment.


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